Bernstein: Four Candidates Remain for Fed Chair, Rick Rieder Nomination Odds Drop to 45%

BlockBeats News, January 28th, according to PolyBeats monitoring, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen just stated that there are four outstanding Fed Chair candidates, and the selection range has neither narrowed nor expanded. Yellen had a long discussion with Trump on the Fed Chair issue aboard a plane.

As a result, Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, has seen his probability of becoming the next Fed Chair drop to 45%, after previously being above 60%. However, the probabilities of the three candidates following him have not increased. Kevin Warsh's nomination probability remains at 30%. Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett have nomination probabilities of 8% and 7% respectively. The total nomination probability for the four candidates is 90%. Could there be a surprise nominee? The market expects Trump to announce his choice tonight.

It is worth noting that on the 23rd, during an interview in Davos, Trump said, "We are down to our final three candidates, but actually, we are down to two. And in my opinion, perhaps we are down to one." At that time, the market almost unanimously believed that the choice would be between Rick Rieder and Kevin Warsh, with their combined nomination probability reaching 87%.

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