Rate Cut: Pause or End? Previewing the 2026 Fed Rate Finality

BlockBeats News, January 28th. According to CME FedWatch data, ahead of tonight's rate decision announcement, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.8%, with a 97.2% probability of a rate pause. Furthermore, the market is starting to worry whether the Fed will enter a long wait-and-see period after this "hawkish pause" and if the rate pause will quietly transition into a rate cut end.

The current data shows that by the end of 2026, the probability of no more rate cuts for the whole year is 10.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut for the year is 28.8%, a 50 basis point cut is 33%, a 75 basis point cut is 19.8%, a 100 basis point cut is 6.8%, and a 125 basis point cut is 1.3%.