QCP: Bitcoin Reclaims $88K Key Level, Options Data Suggests Market Will Consolidate Rather Than Plunge

BlockBeats News, January 28th, QCP published its daily market analysis, stating, "Bitcoin has rebounded to above the $88,000 key level. A recent drop below this level often rapidly triggers an acceleration of downside momentum dominated by liquidation. If a quick recovery occurs, the price will be pulled back into the consolidation range. Next, the market will face a series of intense U.S. macro events: the FOMC interest rate decision on January 28th; the government funding deadline on January 30th, which continues to pose a shutdown risk; the Senate's rescheduled discussion on crypto market structure legislation. The options market clearly reflects this asymmetry. Overall volatility remains under control, the term structure maintains a positive spread, so the baseline scenario is still oscillation rather than a crash.

In terms of fiscal risk, the key issue is whether Washington can smoothly resolve the funding issue on January 30th. If a temporary solution is promptly passed, the short-term risk premium is expected to compress, and crypto assets will trade more like pure beta; if a brief mistake occurs, the market may fluctuate initially but recover post-agreement; if the deadlock persists, liquidity may tighten, forcing a broader market derisking.

A more imminent key juncture is the Federal Reserve. The baseline expectation remains unchanged interest rates, with the market focusing on when the rate cut cycle will resume. Inflation remains above 2%, while employment is beginning to weaken, leading the committee to maintain a cautious stance and data dependency. Against the backdrop of scrutiny over the Fed's independence, it is expected to emphasize independence and reiterate the 'waiting for more data' narrative; if a hawkish pause occurs, it may trigger a dollar rebound and short-term volatility in risk assets."