Fed Holds January Rate as Probability Hits 99%, 7 New Accounts Bet $100,000 on Rate Change

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 7 new accounts created this month have placed bets in the past half month on whether the Federal Reserve will change interest rates (cut or hike) at this week's meeting, with a total cost of $100,000 and currently a total unrealized loss of $63,000.

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on January 30, with the current interest rate held at 5.25-5.5% and the market expecting a 99% probability of no change. Due to January's non-farm payroll significantly exceeding expectations (with an addition of over 200k jobs) and core PCE inflation falling to 2.8%, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized data-driven decisions. Based on the data performance, the market believes there will be no change in interest rates this month.

However, as President Trump has publicly criticized Powell multiple times and hinted at possibly interfering with the Fed's independence, some bettors believe that Powell, to avoid political risk or pressure from a criminal investigation, may unexpectedly cut rates as a "goodwill gesture." Nevertheless, the mainstream view is that the Fed's independence is robust, and the probability of such factors affecting the decision is extremely low.

Accounts:
0xeafb683cfcd9d67ba4e52ef7ef0d8ecbd6e684c7
0x57b22abadfcee23cbcbc875d1d6d89611369708c
0x8f7f1a21f901c49c80c8721ff9a28ea91f47492b
0x677ba84534e646d8f7eaa0189c46043230464c28
0xc413682b008fe27f6d92afad55d55b2c10c2370a
0xda35a9b9306467eea2ee07085c63459bb1b2fcb3
0xf5466de09b6f6c5eff3aa78deb7e4c0bb1411e14

Position: $100k
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