Whale Account Bets $49,000 on Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Before April, Previously Earned $400,000 on Betting on Israel-Hamas Ceasefire

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market, a $112,000 bet was placed last October on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the account profited $394,000. Currently, $49,000 is bet on a Russia-Ukraine war end before April, with the current "Yes" probability at 15%.

Between January 23 - 25, the US, Russia, and Ukraine held the first high-level direct talks since the 2022 war broke out. While both sides described the talks as "constructive," no breakthrough was achieved. The next round of negotiations is scheduled to continue on February 1.

Trump publicly stated that a peace agreement is "quite close" and pressured both sides to make a deal. Zelensky later stated that a bilateral security agreement with the US is "100% ready."

Account: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d

Position: $49k
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