QCP: Japanese Bond Market Volatility and Escalation of US-EU Tariff Conflict Drive Market into Safe Haven Mode, Bitcoin Under Pressure and Falls

BlockBeats News, January 21st, QCP pointed out in the latest daily market analysis that global market risk appetite has cooled significantly in the past week, with the Japan bond market impact and geopolitical tensions driving funds towards defense. The US stock market fell more than 2% at one point, and the global bond market was under pressure simultaneously.

The report stated that Japan has become the core of the current market's anxiety. After a long period of ultra-low interest rates, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.29%, hitting a new high since 1999, exposing severe fiscal vulnerability. Japan's government debt has exceeded 240% of GDP, with a total debt of about 1,342 trillion yen, and it is expected that by 2026, debt interest expenditure will account for about one-fourth of fiscal expenditure. The increase in yield is triggering widespread doubts in the market about the sustainability of Japan's public finances, with spillover effects on the global bond market.

Meanwhile, US-Europe relations are tense once again. The Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries opposing US control of Greenland, with plans to raise it to 25% on June 1st. The EU promptly stated that it would take retaliatory measures, and there is a further escalation risk in bilateral trade relations. The US-EU bilateral goods trade volume in 2024 is about $650 billion to $700 billion, and the impact of the conflict escalation is significant. The European Parliament is also considering suspending the US-EU trade agreement reached in July this year.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin remained under pressure after falling below $90,000, although it had briefly risen above $97,000 earlier. However, the momentum did not recover. QCP pointed out that BTC currently behaves more like a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe haven tool, being highly sensitive to interest rates, geopolitical issues, and cross-market volatility. Until policy signals become clearer, the crypto market may still passively respond, with funds shifting focus to capital preservation rather than risk-taking.