Option Market Data Reflects Traders Betting on Bitcoin to Fall or Retrace to $75,000

BlockBeats News, January 20, according to traders on the decentralized on-chain options, perpetual contract, and structured product protocol Derive.xyz, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 by the end of June is 30%. Dr. Sean Dawson, Research Director at Derive.xyz, stated: "The options market shows a clear downward skew, with the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 by June 26 being 30%, while the probability of surpassing $120,000 during the same period is only 19%."

Recently, due to ten countries opposing the United States' takeover plan of Greenland, Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imports from ten European countries, reigniting tariff concerns and causing Bitcoin to drop from $95,000 to $91,000.

Dawson stated that geopolitical tensions may lead to a further decline. "The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe (especially regarding the Greenland dispute) has increased the systemic transition risk of market return to a high-volatility environment, a dynamic that has not yet been fully reflected in the current spot price." He explained that the option skew indicator, measuring the price difference between bullish and bearish options, remains in negative territory, implying short-term downside concerns. Similar signals are also present in the activities of centralized derivative platforms such as Deribit.

On the Derive and Deribit platforms, there is a high concentration of open interest in put options with strike prices in the $75,000 to $80,000 range, reflecting the market's expectation of a potential price pullback to the mid-$75,000 range.