Glassnode: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Been in a State of Unrealized Loss Since 25 November

BlockBeats News, January 19, Glassnode released data on social media indicating that the STH-NUPL metric (measuring the ratio of unrealized gains and losses of new investors to the market value of short-term holders) shows that since November 2025, new investors have been consistently in a net unrealized loss state. To bring this group back to a net profit state, it seems that a Bitcoin price recovery to around $98,000 or higher is the minimum threshold.

BlockBeats Note: Following the pattern of historical bear markets and sharp pullbacks, prolonged declines in a bear market may gradually force these short-term holders (STH, new investors) to surrender their chips in unrealized losses. During the 2018 bear market, STH-NUPL plummeted to around -0.6, triggering mass capitulation by short-term players, realizing massive losses and ultimately clearing out a significant speculative bubble, leading to the market bottoming out and initiating a new bull market. In the 2022 bear market (post-FTX crash), the peak of STH realized losses hit a record high, and after weak hands were cleared out, the price found support near $16,000, followed by the start of a bullish market trend.