TD Cowen Lowers Strategy Price Target to $440, Cites Bitcoin Return Outlook Pressure

BlockBeats News, January 15th, Investment Bank TD Cowen lowered the one-year target price of Bitcoin Treasury Company Strategy from $500 to $440, citing ongoing dilution of Bitcoin yield due to the company's continued use of common and preferred stock financing.

TD Cowen analysts expect Strategy to increase its Bitcoin holdings by about 155,000 coins in the 2026 fiscal year (previously expected to be 90,000 coins), but the higher pace of coin acquisition will mainly rely on equity financing, thereby reducing the "Bitcoin yield" (i.e., the increase in Bitcoin holdings per share). Analysts have lowered their Bitcoin yield expectation for the 2026 fiscal year to 7.1%, significantly below the previous 8.8% and far below the 22.8% in the 2025 fiscal year.

During a recent Bitcoin price pullback, Strategy significantly increased its coin purchases. In the week ending January 11th, the company issued approximately 6.8 million common shares and 1.2 million STRC floating rate preferred shares, raising a total of about $1.25 billion, almost all of which was used to purchase 13,627 coins. TD Cowen pointed out that due to the financing price being close to book value, the Bitcoin yield from this move is limited and only makes sense if Bitcoin prices see a significant recovery.

Looking ahead, TD Cowen expects the Bitcoin yield for the 2027 fiscal year to rise to 8.1% and maintains an optimistic view on Bitcoin's long-term price, predicting it to be around $177,000 by the end of 2026 and around $226,000 by the end of 2027.