Analysis: Bitcoin's Correlation to Gold Turns Negative, Historical Signal Points to At Least 50% BTC Upswing

BlockBeats News, January 14th, data shows that Bitcoin's 52-week correlation with gold has dropped to zero for the first time since mid-2022 and may turn negative by the end of January. Historically, in similar situations, Bitcoin has typically seen an average increase of 56% over about two months, corresponding to a price range of $144,000 to $150,000.

Analysis points out that when Bitcoin's trend diverges from gold, it often indicates that BTC is about to enter a strong upward trend. The current macro environment is also seen as bullish, including the rebound in global liquidity (M2 growth) and the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) nearing completion. Matt Hougan, research director at Bitwise, stated that a new global monetary easing cycle has begun and may continue to drive Bitcoin's price up through 2026.

From a cyclical structure perspective, analysts believe that Bitcoin's trend is replicating the bull market path of 2020-2021, transitioning from a long-term consolidation phase to the early stage of a "quasi-parabolic" rally. If the historical fractal continues, the target price for BTC this round may be around $150,000.