Analysis: Powell Investigation Triggers Bitcoin's Brief Surge Above $92,000, But ETF Continued Net Outflows and Weak Leverage Demand Suppress Upside Potential

BlockBeats News, January 13th, according to Cointelegraph's report, Bitcoin briefly surged above $92,000 on Monday due to a criminal investigation launched by the U.S. Federal Prosecutor against Fed Chair Powell. Analysts questioned whether the Fed's independence could be compromised, which could benefit alternative scarce assets like Bitcoin. Despite the brief rally triggered by this news, traders remained cautious overall, mainly due to continued outflows from the Bitcoin ETF and weak demand for long leverage. Despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin is still down by about 23% from its October 2025 high, while gold and silver hit a new all-time high in 2026. This divergent trend has also prompted traders to begin questioning whether the narrative of "Bitcoin as a digital store of value" is weakening.

The annualized premium of Bitcoin futures (i.e., the basis) remains at a neutral bearish level of about 5%. Generally, when market sentiment truly shifts to bullish, the premium of Bitcoin futures to spot tends to reach or exceed 10%. More importantly, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $1.38 billion over four consecutive trading days. Even more concerning is that despite Strategy increasing its Bitcoin holdings by about $1.25 billion over the past month, the Bitcoin price has still failed to hold above $94,000 effectively.

Overall, the appeal of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies remains subdued, as reflected in ETF flows and the soft demand for leveraged long positions in Bitcoin. This indicates that the probability of a sudden uptick in the short term and a surge to $105,000 is relatively low.