VanEck: Bitcoin Could Hit $2.9 Million by 2050

BlockBeats News, January 9th, VanEck released a new report on the Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, expecting strong growth for Bitcoin over the next few decades and outlining how institutional investors might allocate this asset in a diversified portfolio. The report, authored by VanEck's Director of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush, shows that in a base case scenario, Bitcoin is projected to reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050.

This prediction implies a roughly 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the current price. The model assumes Bitcoin will account for 5–10% of global trade and become a reserve asset for central banks, representing 2.5% of their balance sheets. In a conservative scenario (bear market), Bitcoin's annual growth would be only 2%, reaching around $130,000 per coin by 2050. In an extremely bullish 'hyperbitcoinization' scenario, where Bitcoin represents 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP, each coin could theoretically reach $53.4 million, corresponding to a 29% CAGR.

The report highlights Bitcoin's potential as a strategic, low-correlation asset in institutional portfolios. VanEck suggests allocating 1–3% of a typical diversified portfolio to Bitcoin. For investors with a higher risk tolerance, historically, increasing this allocation to 20% could optimize returns. VanEck believes that Bitcoin is transcending its speculative nature, has the potential to become a reserve asset, and can provide a hedge against currency devaluation risks, especially as developed markets face high sovereign debt levels.