Analysis: Bitcoin's price surge is not primarily driven by the Venezuela event, but by institutional adoption, shifting regulatory sentiment towards crypto, and renewed risk appetite.
BlockBeats News, January 6th, Bitwise Research Director Ryan Rasmussen posted a statement saying, "The explanation from Wall Street for Bitcoin's approximately 5% surge is: Venezuela's oil reserves were released, oil prices fell, inflation decreased, interest rates dropped, leading to Bitcoin's rise. However, this logic is incorrect. In the short term, the probability of a rate cut remains basically unchanged compared to last week, even looking ahead to the end of 2026, the rate cut expectations remain unchanged even after Maduro's arrest. Since Maduro's arrest, the factors that have driven Bitcoin's price up more than 5% are as follows:
· Institutional Adoption (Bullish for Bitcoin): Since the launch of the 2024 Bitcoin spot ETF, institutional funds have continued to flow into the crypto market, and this trend is accelerating. With major platforms such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America's Merrill Lynch, and Wells Fargo starting to allocate assets (e.g., with about $500 million net inflow into Bitcoin ETF on January 2nd), institutional participation is significantly increasing.
· Crypto Regulation Turning (Bullish for Bitcoin): With the gradual establishment of crypto-friendly regulations after the 2024 election, the crypto industry will begin to tangibly feel the benefits of the policy shift. Wall Street institutions, including wealth management firms, university endowment funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc., are beginning to more seriously and systematically allocate Bitcoin.
· AI Optimism (Bullish for Risk Assets): Concerns about an AI bubble are easing. Investor sentiment is turning optimistic, and funds are flowing back into risk-on assets such as tech stocks and Bitcoin.
· Rate Cut Expectations Unchanged (Bullish for Risk Assets): Maduro's arrest has not materially changed the short-term rate cut expectations, nor does it mean that quantitative easing (QE) has been ruled out; QE has just begun. The market previously, and still now, expects a 50 basis point rate cut in 2026 (or even more).
This weekend's event in Venezuela had some impact on Bitcoin, but it is not the main reason for Bitcoin's approximately 5% rise."
