HTX DeepThink: Employment Data Emerges as Key Variable at Start of New Year, Crypto Market Remains Cautious

BlockBeats News, January 5th, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe stated that US employment and economic data are once again becoming the core variable influencing market expectations, and their performance will directly impact the pace of the Fed's next rate cut. The minutes of the December Fed meeting showed that some officials were cautious about a rapid rate cut. Coupled with GDP in the third quarter exceeding expectations, the market has largely ruled out a rate cut in January. Currently, interest rate futures indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is close to 50%.

Chloe pointed out that the premise of the above expectations is that the labor market has not shown significant deterioration. The December non-farm payroll data released this week, especially whether the November data has been revised downward, will be a key observation point. At the same time, ISM manufacturing and services PMI will also provide references for the economic and inflation trends.

In this context, the overall cryptocurrency market is still in a wait-and-see stage. Bitcoin is fluctuating at a high level, lacking a clear direction. Derivative data shows a decrease in option implied volatility and a certain premium for put options, reflecting a market stance that is more defensive rather than actively betting on an increase. Chloe believes that if the employment data weaken significantly, the expectation of a rate cut may be reinforced; if the data is stronger, the market may continue its consolidation pattern.