According to PolyBeats monitoring, the official edgeX Meme token MARU is now openly tradable on their platform, a move that had previously caused the probability of the "Will EdgeX launch a token in 2025" market on Polymarket to skyrocket to 99.5%. However, as users discovered that the token could only be traded within the platform and not withdrawn to the blockchain, the probability saw a steep decline, reaching a low of 13.5%. Analysis revealed that four accounts created in December had bought the "Yes" position at the peak and were currently facing significant unrealized losses but chose to hold.
Holder analysis shows that the four accounts SUNSETDREAM, medallionstallion, shatoo, and mindbuilder were all created in December 2025, with their only transaction being the wager on edgeX launching a token in 2025. SUNSETDREAM bought 4380 positions at an average price of 91c, while medallionstallion bought 6000 positions at 73c. The other two accounts entered at 68c and 75c, significantly higher than the current price of 46c.
With only a day and a half left until the market settles, these four accounts collectively hold over 14,000 "Yes" positions, all currently at a loss with no selling activity. MARU currently meets the prediction market's criteria for "issuance" and "open trading," only needing to enable withdrawals in the final day and a half for the outcome to be determined as "Yes." Additionally, a member of the edgeX Chinese official TG group indicated today or tomorrow as the expected withdrawal opening time for MARU.

