VanEck: Mining Activity Decline Is a 'Bullish Signal' for Bitcoin Price

BlockBeats News, December 23rd, VanEck's latest report shows that the recent decline in mining activity may signal an upcoming Bitcoin price increase, in line with historical market patterns.

VanEck analysts stated in a report released on Monday titled "Mid-December 2025 ChainCheck" that Bitcoin has historically been more likely to experience positive returns after a period of declining mining activity. Since 2014, when Bitcoin network hash rate has decreased, the probability of Bitcoin's forward 90-day return being positive is 65%, compared to 54% when the hash rate is increasing.

VanEck analysts said: "Some empirical evidence suggests that a decrease in hash rate may be favorable for long-term holders," describing this pattern as a "reverse signal" associated with miner capitulation, where weaker operators exit the network under financial pressure. This historical correlation is playing out again as Bitcoin's hash rate dropped by 4% in a month ending December 15th, marking the largest decline since April 2024.

The report stated: "Furthermore, when hash rate compression persists for an extended period, positive expected returns are often more frequent and of greater magnitude."