Analysis: Bitcoin on Track for Worst Q4 Performance Since 2018, Market Rebound 'Lackluster'

BlockBeats News, December 23rd, Bitcoin recently rebounded to nearly $90,000, bringing a short-term boost to the crypto market. However, analysts generally believe that this trend is not enough to constitute a trend reversal. CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin has fallen by more than 22% in the fourth quarter of this year, possibly making it one of the worst-performing fourth quarters since 2018, second only to major bear market years.

Despite the total cryptocurrency market cap reclaiming the key $3 trillion mark, market sentiment remains cautious. Analysis points out that this round of rebound is more due to a technical rebound after a continuous decline than a re-entry of funds. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, stated that the current trend is "not a true recovery," and market sentiment has only seen limited improvement.

As of the Asian session, Bitcoin was hovering around $88,000, still about 30% below its 2025 high and below the year's starting level. Major tokens overall remained volatile, with XRP, ETH, SOL, ADA, and DOGE seeing slight gains, while AAVE continued to weaken due to governance disputes, with a 7% decline in the past 24 hours.

Seasonal factors have also reinforced cautious expectations. Historical data shows that although the fourth quarter is usually a strong period for Bitcoin, in years of increased liquidity tightening and macro uncertainty, the year-end is also prone to significant retracements. The current market still frequently experiences selling pressure during the U.S. trading session, with high short-term price volatility risks.