VanEck: Recent Bitcoin Miner 'Capitulation' May Signal Price Bottom

BlockBeats News, December 23rd, according to Cointelegraph, VanEck analysts stated that as of December 15th, Bitcoin's network-wide hashrate had dropped by 4% within a month. This could potentially bode well for Bitcoin's price in the coming months, as miner capitulation has historically been seen as a bullish contrarian indicator.

VanEck's Director of Digital Asset Research Matt Sigel and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush noted in a report released on Monday: "When hashrate declines persist for a considerable period, the probability of future positive returns is higher, with the magnitude of the gains often being greater."

They also stated that since 2014, when Bitcoin's network-wide hashrate has declined in the previous 30 days, the probability of positive forward-looking returns over 90 days has reached 65%; whereas in the case of hashrate increases, this proportion is only 54%. This pattern also holds true over a longer time horizon: when the hashrate growth rate has been negative in the previous 90 days, the probability of Bitcoin's price rising in the following 180 days reaches 77%, with an average increase of about 72%; whereas in periods of hashrate growth, the probability of positive returns over 180 days is only 61%.