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Tonight's CPI Preview: Data Distortion Skewing Higher, Limited Reference Value

BlockBeats News, December 18th: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI data for November on December 18th. Due to the impact of the previous U.S. government shutdown between October 1st and November 12th, the BLS was unable to complete the price data collection through its regular process. As a result, the overall data for October CPI and the month-on-month data for November are missing, and almost all sub-item month-on-month data will also be absent. Therefore, the market generally believes that the reference value of the November CPI data is limited, and the market focus will quickly shift to the December inflation data.


Currently, the market expects the year-on-year CPI for November to be 3.1% and the core CPI to be 3.0%, continuing the mild rebound trend seen since mid-year. (Wall Street News)

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Core CPI at 0.2% month-over-month means the Fed stays put, while 0.3% triggers a rate hike.
The current interest rate hike probability is around 50%, with benign inflation data potentially prompting a wait-and-see approach. However, the hawkish stance still introduces uncertainty into the future policy outlook.
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