K33: Bitcoin HODLer Sell-Off Pressure Nearing "Saturation," Distribution Phase Approaching End

BlockBeats News, December 17, Research and brokerage firm K33 stated in a report released yesterday that selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is nearing a saturation stage after years of distribution, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to gradually ease.

K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde pointed out that since 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for over two years has been continuously decreasing, with around 1.6 million BTC being reactivated and flowing into the market, valued at approximately $138 billion at current prices, reflecting continued on-chain selling by early adopters. Lunde believes that this scale has significantly exceeded what can be explained by technical migration or structural adjustments, showing substantive distribution behavior.

The report stated that 2024 and 2025 became the second and third highest years in Bitcoin history for the scale of long-term supply re-circulation, second only to 2017. Different from the distribution cycle in that year driven by ICOs, altcoin trading, and incentive mechanisms, this round of selling is more of a deep liquidity realization gain brought by long-term hodlers directly to the US Bitcoin spot ETF and corporate financial demands.

Looking ahead, K33 expects the selling pressure to gradually ease. Lunde stated that in the past two years, approximately 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to approach saturation, with the supply of Bitcoin held for over two years either ending the current downtrend by 2026 and above the current level of around 12.16 million BTC. In addition, K33 also pointed out the asset allocation rebalancing effect that may occur at the end of the quarter and the beginning of a new quarter. Given that Bitcoin significantly underperformed other assets in the fourth quarter, funds with fixed allocation proportions may reallocate at the end of the year and early next year, potentially bringing in phase-related capital inflows to the market.