Japan Bids Farewell to 30-Year Era of Ultra-Low Interest Rates, Market Confirms 25-Basis-Point Hike on Friday

According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of the Bank of Japan "25 Basis Points Rate Hike in December" has reached 98%. If the rate hike proceeds as scheduled on Friday, December 19th, Japan's benchmark interest rate will rise from 0.50% to 0.75%. This level will mark the highest point since 1995, signaling Japan's formal departure from the era of ultra-low interest rates that has been maintained for the past 30 years.

Currently, whether it is authoritative polls or underlying economic data, they all present a "unanimous consensus": a Bloomberg survey shows that all respondents predict a rate hike to 0.75% this week, while Reuters also indicates that over 90% of experts hold the same view.

On the other hand, in the "Bank of Japan January Policy Decision," the current highest probability is for "no change," stabilizing at over 90%.