「Fed's Dovecam」: Current Employment Situation Not Strong Enough to Support Rate Cut in January

BlockBeats News, December 16th. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," analyzed today's U.S. employment data, stating that the November unemployment rate rose to 4.564%, an increase of 12 basis points from September's 4.440%. Powell had previously stated last week that the Fed believes its policy setting will stabilize the unemployment rate, or that it will "only rise another percentage point or two." The new employment report is sufficient to validate the Fed's rate cuts implemented so far as reasonable, and the current employment situation may not be enough to justify another rate cut in January.

Following today's release of U.S. employment and retail sales data, U.S. interest rate futures still anticipate two rate cuts in 2026, with a slight increase in the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January next year, rising from 24.4% to 31%.