Musk referred to the release of the Grok new model this year, with the current probability of release within the year standing at only 23%.

BlockBeats News, December 15, according to PolyBeats, Musk's post on December 7 stated that Grok 4.20 would be released in 3 to 4 weeks. He then confirmed again on the 10th that Grok 4.20 would be released within three weeks, sparking discussions in the market about the exact release date of Grok 4.20 and the establishment of a series of markets regarding "Will Grok 4.20 be released before X Month X Day?".

Based on Musk's tweets, Grok 4.20 should be released before December 31, but the current probability of releasing before December 31 is only 23%: considering the potential slowdown in the engineering team's work due to the Christmas and New Year holidays, the market generally believes that the likelihood of a year-end release is low.

Currently, the probabilities for the other three date points are: January 15 at 75%, January 31 at 83%, and April 20 at 96%.