Raoul Pal: The current bull market cycle is expected to peak in 2026, and cryptocurrency is actually a macro asset.

BlockBeats News, December 11, former Goldman Sachs executive, author of "Global Macro Investor," and co-founder and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal stated at the Solana Breakpoint Conference:

“The declining labor force participation rate implies a shrinking labor force population. And population structure is key to driving debt. As population growth continues to decline, this means the debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise, which is the issue at hand.

We have to face the global debt problem, and currency devaluation has always been a way to address (or delay) this issue. We have begun to see signs that the Fed has to reconsider its balance sheet and start thinking about how to 'monetize' all this debt. It is expected that in the next 12 months, we will need to print approximately $80 trillion in liquidity injection banknotes.

I know many people may think the crypto cycle has ended, feeling that 'the good days are over.' But in fact, what is driving all of this is cyclical, not coming from the Bitcoin halving cycle, but from the debt maturity cycle.

So, I believe it is not a 4-year cycle now, but a 5-year cycle. In a 5-year cycle, we have already passed the trough of the cycle, and the next step is the upward phase. The cycle should peak at the end of 2026, not in 2025. This is a breakthrough understanding for us as global macro investors: understanding that cryptocurrency is actually a macro asset.

Furthermore, the altcoin/Bitcoin cross rate is being driven by the business cycle, and the business cycle appears to be bottoming, not peaking.”