Update: Star Trader Consensus on OpenAI's New Model Release Time

According to PolyBeats monitoring, following last week's release, where the probability of "Will OpenAI release a new cutting-edge model before December 13?" surged from 45% to 80%, the market has added two new settlement options for December 9 and December 31, making the market consensus more clear. Currently, the probability of a release before December 31 is as high as 96%, indicating a very strong consensus among the public that OpenAI will release a new model this year. However, regarding the short-term release time game, it has revealed subtle strategic differences between key traders.

The focus of this round of the game is on the short-term option for December 9. Two traders who were previously mentioned and have amazing track records in OpenAI-related markets have formed a highly consistent judgment: the new model will be released before December 13 but not before December 9.

The trader previously mentioned, 0xLuck, after the December 9 market release, was reported to have quickly exited at a loss after buying a significant amount of "Yes" at a high price. But his confidence in December 13 remains unshaken, still holding nearly 10,000 "Yes" positions with an average price of 79 cents.

lamps, now known as pony-pony, is still adding to his "Yes" position for December 13. Unlike 0xLuck, he promptly bought "No" at an average price of 52 cents after the December 9 market release. The current position is up 77%, indicating that he is using the position as a precise hedge, believing that the model will not be released before the 9th, thereby ensuring maximum profit in the final release before the 13th.

A newcomer, "0xd7ea64e9acf4427678febb7cc9baedf7995cdd4e," started significantly increasing his position for "Yes" on December 13 a day ago. He has only one small loss of less than $15 in OpenAI-related historical positions, with a total profit of nearly $9,000, demonstrating extremely strong information control. His judgment, along with the previous two, is to avoid December 9.