The 10U War God suddenly increased its position aggressively, betting that Trump would ignore the legal "non-public" Epstein files.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, the prediction market for "Will Trump publicly release the Epstein files before December 19/December 31?" is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between a clear legal requirement and cautious market expectations. On November 19, Trump signed the "Epstein File Transparency Act," which explicitly requires the Department of Justice (DOJ) to release all uncategorized files within 30 days of the signing. This means the statutory deadline for the file release is December 19.

However, despite the legal requirement for the files to be released by the 19th of this month, the probability of "December 19 disclosure" is currently only hovering around 56%, and the probability of "release before December 31" is also only 70%. This uncertainty is mainly due to the market's strict settlement rules: the ruling requires the files to be proactively released by the executive branch through official websites, press releases, etc., and must include substantive content related to Jeffrey Epstein's illegal activities. Unsealing by federal courts, publication by Congress, or metadata without substantive content do not meet the requirements.

The market is generally concerned that while DOJ must comply with the act, they must also edit portions of the files that involve victim and personal identity information. This is a time-consuming process that may spark legal disputes, and any challenges regarding the scope of editing could result in the files not being publicly disclosed within the statutory deadline in a manner compliant with settlement rules, leading to a settlement of "No" in the market.

In this highly uncertain environment, three traders holding "No" positions stand out, indicating a strong belief:

0xtherealbatman holds $4,000 of the 19th "No" at an average price of 44c, with a historical average position size of less than $10.
ohawaffle holds $4,900 of the 19th "No" at an average price of 43c, with a historical average position size of $60.
VT2025 holds nearly $2,000 of the 31st "No" at an average price of 26c, with a historical average position size of $50.

All three traders have a position concentration of over 90% and are heavily betting that the files will not be released within 2025 or that the disclosed files will not meet the settlement rules of the market.