QCP: Bitcoin Holds Steady as Future Leadership Changes at the Federal Reserve Take Center Stage

BlockBeats News, December 3rd: QCP released its daily market observation today, stating that after the sharp volatility on Monday, the market has entered a wait-and-see state, appearing calm on the surface but far from relaxed. Bitcoin, after rebounding 5% from a low of $86,000, is quietly trading around the $90,000 mid-level; meanwhile, the stock and forex markets are floating ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, which is data-light but politically charged. Beneath the surface calm, the market is evidently preparing for the next round of catalysts.

The Focus Shifts to the Fed Leadership
The next round of market catalysts is increasingly likely to come from the Fed, especially its new leadership. Betting markets have seen rapid changes, with the probability of Kevin Hassett becoming the next Fed chair pegged at around 85%, expected to be formally confirmed by Trump early next year. With the leadership transition occurring at a fragile stage in monetary policy, it has raised questions in the market about how the new leadership may impact the Fed's response mechanism.

Miran to Depart in January 2026
Bostic to Depart in February
Powell to Step Down in May

This series of changes may push the FOMC towards a more dovish stance than the market is accustomed to.

Next Week's FOMC: Limited Information, Elevated Risks

The upcoming FOMC meeting has introduced new variables. With no new CPI or NFP data during the meeting, policymakers' visibility is much lower than usual. Nevertheless, futures markets have priced in a 90% probability of a precautionary 25-basis-point rate cut next week. The market focus is shifting from mere inflation data to governance, policy leanings, and institutional direction.
Crypto Market: Temporary Relief but Issues Unresolved

A major source of weekend anxiety has been temporarily alleviated. Strategy raised approximately $1.4 billion through a stock issuance, extending its operating funds for about 21 months, while increasing its mNAV to around 1.14. Management reiterated that BTC will only be sold when mNAV falls below 1.0. As a result, short-term market sentiment has stabilized, but structural pressures continue to keep the market vigilant. The next key risk event is the MSCI index inclusion review on January 15th, which could still trigger significant fluctuations in Strategy-related fund flows.
Current State

Currently, crypto assets remain relatively stable but in a "tense stability" mode, awaiting more definitive signals. With limited macro catalysts and rising uncertainty in the Fed leadership, digital assets are effectively in a pause mode until policymakers provide the next clear guidance.