Bitfinex Report: Market Approaching Local Bottom and Transitioning to Consolidation Phase

BlockBeats News, December 2nd, Bitfinex released a report stating, "Last week, Bitcoin saw a significant rebound, which is consistent with our previous view that, from a timing perspective, the market is approaching a local bottom, although whether the price bottom has occurred remains to be seen. However, with extreme deleveraging, capitulation of short-term holders, and signs of seller exhaustion, we believe the market has laid the foundation for the start of a stabilization phase.

On-chain metrics further corroborate this view: the adjusted spent profit ratio has dropped below 1 for only the third time since early 2024, aligning with the realized dynamics seen at previous cyclical lows (August 2024 and April 2025).

The current depth of losses can also be seen in the entity-adjusted realized losses, soaring to $4.034 billion daily, surpassing the levels at previous major lows measured by this metric.

This level of realized losses typically indicates that capitulation is nearing completion rather than the beginning of a deeper downturn. Meanwhile, derivative data shows the market is undergoing a controlled reset: BTC futures' total open interest (OI) has declined to $59.17 billion, well below the peak of $94.12 billion, indicating leverage is being orderly digested.

OI continues to shrink, while spot prices rise, indicating more of a short-squeeze market rather than a new round of speculative risk-taking, further reinforcing the view that the market is transitioning to a more stable consolidation phase with reduced fragility, potentially setting the stage for a sustainable recovery bottom in the fourth quarter."