Recent Market Bearish Signals: AI Bubble Drives US Stock Volatility, ETF Records Record Outflows Exacerbating Market Sell-off, December Rate Cut Prospects See Significant Volatility

BlockBeats News, November 22nd. After hitting a historical high on October 7th, Bitcoin faced consecutive sell-offs, experiencing a drop of over 35% in the past 46 days. Yesterday, it nearly slipped below the $80,000 mark, leading the entire cryptocurrency market to undergo several days of bearish trends with losses, and has now seen a slight rebound to around $85,000.

Recently, the global financial market's downward risk has intensified, with AI bubble theories dominating the ups and downs of the U.S. stock market. The record-breaking "shutdown" by the U.S. government has delayed the release of various crucial macroeconomic data, leading to a sharp liquidity crunch and significant fluctuations in the interest rate cut probability for December. Within the crypto market, the following specific bearish factors have been summarized:

· The market has questioned Nvidia's ability to recover its high receivables, with a cash conversion rate lower than industry peers. At the same time, multiple AI companies have reused funds, with some transactions double-counted as revenue. Several investment institutions have sold off Nvidia stocks, and the AI bubble has long suppressed the U.S. stock market's performance, causing an overall market decline. Last night, a Fed official expressed optimism about AI, Nvidia's CEO clarified concerns about the AI bubble, and the U.S. stock market rebounded;

· BlackRock IBIT saw a record-breaking $523 million outflow on the 19th of this month, with a huge net outflow of over $2.5 billion this month, marking the highest consecutive trading days' market value evaporation in history. Analysis suggests that retail investors in the U.S. stock market selling off Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are the main selling pressure in the crypto market, causing significant damage to native crypto users;

· The DAT flywheel has stalled, with top investors predicting DAT companies will sell off reserves, and mainstream DAT companies' mNAVs have fallen below 1. Some small-scale DAT companies have begun selling off cryptocurrency reserves to buy back stocks;

· The U.S. government has just ended a record 43-day shutdown, during which many important economic and employment data were not published. Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly surged by 119,000 in September, and the Fed's "hawkish" stance on continued inflation concerns led to a significant fluctuation in the probability of a December interest rate cut, falling from an initial 70% probability (25 BP) to 30%. Traders at one point bet that the market would no longer see a rate cut in December. Early this morning, several Fed officials collectively turned "dovish" again, raising the interest rate cut probability to 71.3% (25 BP), reigniting interest rate cut bets.