Bitunix Analyst: Non-Farm Payrolls Data Shows Mixed Signals as Interest Rate Path Hits Another Standstill, Leading to Bitcoin Decline Followed by Consolidation

BlockBeats News, November 21st. The U.S. Department of Labor released the September nonfarm payroll data, showing an addition of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding the market's expectation of 52,000 jobs. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, reaching a four-year high. This delayed employment report, released after the government shutdown, has become the last key data before the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. The data itself is lagging and contradictory, further deepening policy divergences and making it difficult for the market to determine a clear interest rate path. The latest federal funds futures indicate that the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to less than 40%, reflecting a rapid cooling of market expectations for easing.

On a macro level, the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll data should have been hawkish. However, the sharp rise in the unemployment rate clearly indicates a weak internal structure in the labor market, sending a "fractured" signal and causing policymakers to have greater disagreements when interpreting the economic strength/weakness. The lagging nature of this data also makes it harder for the market to confirm the true economic momentum, leading to a renewed flight to safety in a high-interest-rate environment. This uncertainty is rapidly being reflected in risk assets.

In the crypto market, BTC was significantly suppressed by the $93,000 resistance level and further dragged down by the cooling rate expectations, with prices briefly falling to around $85,000. Structurally, if unable to hold above $86,800, it may further test $80,200.

A Bitunix analyst stated: In the vacuum of unclear interest rate and employment signals, the market is prone to amplified volatility, and short-term sentiment-driven technical structure trading is favored. It is advised to focus on three key points: 1) Whether subsequent labor market data revisions will reverse the market's assessment of economic weakness; 2) Whether the internal divisions within the Fed regarding rate cuts will continue to widen; 3) Whether BTC's structure can hold the low point, and whether it can retest the upper boundary of the range with liquidity replenishment. These factors will drive the price rhythm and risk preference direction in the coming week.