Independent Researcher: $61 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Collapse

BlockBeats News, November 21st, Independent Financial Market Researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera published an article stating that after NVIDIA's Q3 earnings report was released, the company's stock price initially rose by 5% but plummeted within 18 hours. Core financial data shows that the company's accounts receivable reached as high as $33.4 billion, an 89% increase from the previous year, with an average collection period extended to 53 days, potentially resulting in $10.4 billion in uncollectible receivables. At the same time, NVIDIA is sitting on $19.8 billion in unsold chips, but management claims strong demand, with only $14.5 billion in cash flow, and reported profits of $19.3 billion, with a cash conversion rate of only 75%, below industry peers.

Furthermore, several AI companies have been engaged in fund recycling, where some transactions double-count revenue but actual cash has not been received. Recently, key shareholders have voted with their feet: PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel reduced his holdings by about $1 billion on November 9th, SoftBank sold about $5.8 billion on November 11th, and The Big Short prototype Michael Burry heavily invested in put options with a target price of $140 (expiring in March 2026).

The market impact quickly spread to crypto assets, with Bitcoin plummeting from a high of $126,000 in October to $86,000. Bitcoin used as collateral for loans by AI startups faces selling pressure, and if NVIDIA drops another 40%, it could trigger forced selling of approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin, further depressing prices. It is anticipated that after NVIDIA's Q1 2026 earnings report reveals overdue receivables, credit rating downgrades and financial restatements will trigger further market adjustments. NVIDIA's fair value is around $71 per share, while the current price is $186 per share, posing significant downside risk.

Shanaka Anslem Perera's impactful views mainly focus on the collapse of the AI bubble, the hidden crisis of private credit, and the overall market fragility. His analysis has sparked widespread discussions among hedge fund managers and investors. Despite this, he has also faced some criticism—some responses accuse him of "creating panic" or "ignoring AI's long-term potential," labeling him as a "doomsayer." However, these voices have been overshadowed by his data-driven narrative, overall reinforcing his reputation as a market watchdog.