After the release of US Initial Jobless Claims data, the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has decreased to 83.4%.

BlockBeats News, September 25th, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, after the release of today's U.S. initial jobless claims and other data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in October has decreased to 83.4% (down from 91.9% yesterday), while the probability of unchanged rates has risen to 16.6%.

Previously reported, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20th was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025, with an expectation of 235,000. The final value of the U.S. second-quarter core PCE price index annualized rate was 2.6%, with an expectation of 2.5%. In addition, the final value of the U.S. second-quarter real GDP annualized rate was 3.8%, with an expectation of 3.30%.