Analysis: Tonight Powell may "mildly" hint at Fed rate cut in October

BlockBeats News, September 17th. Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a report: "The key question for the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting is whether the Committee will signal that this is likely the first in a series of consecutive rate cuts. The statement is expected to acknowledge weakness in the labor market, but we do not believe the policy guidance will change or indicate a rate cut in October. However, Chairman Powell may subtly hint in this direction during the press conference."

Mericle expects that the "dot plot" will show two rate cuts instead of three, although the margin is small. In fact, Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference are often more important than the Federal Open Market Committee's statement. Along with the statement and dot plot, officials will also release updated forecasts for GDP, unemployment, and inflation. (Fx678)