Trader Eugene: Expects a Breakout This Week, Bullish on ETH

BlockBeats News, July 7th, Trader Eugene released his trading record and market outlook as follows:

「I expect we will see a breakthrough this week—after careful consideration, the asset I have chosen is ETH. In late 2024 and early 2025, I swore I would never touch it again, but now I realize that ETH's market positioning and tailwinds have changed significantly. These changes can be summarized as follows:

1. Significant reduction in holdings after the April 2025 "nuclear explosion"—the comprehensive surrender of traders and old whales caused ETH to drop from $4000 to $1300, and ETHBTC also hit a multi-year low of 0.018. Since then, ETH's trading pattern has been drastically different from the past two years. I rarely see anyone other than developers treating $ETH as a core investment target, and most traders I interact with refuse to touch it. This means that from a long-term structural perspective, $ETH's market positioning has never been this light in the past three years.

2. ETH will become the infrastructure/stablecoin investment target for mainstream institutions and traditional finance—many people have been advocating this recently, and my initial reaction was "Oh, come on, buddy" (I'm sure many of you reading this had a similar reaction). However, if you objectively consider the recent proactive regulatory developments in the United States, institutions will sooner or later want more than just BTC. Today, over 90% of stablecoins are held on ETH, and it is highly likely to continue to be the main chain securing this total value locked (TVL). Anyone can see the upcoming stablecoin boom, and from a business perspective, deviating from ETH is senseless given the higher risks associated with using other layer 1 networks (L1). Now, with Tom Lee mimicking Michael Saylor's intensity to the point of obsession, and successfully convincing traditional financial institutions to believe that ETH is a project worth supporting, I was initially very skeptical of this view, but given the huge demand of traditional financial institutions for cryptocurrency ownership and the stablecoin bills passed in the United States, I have gradually come to accept this view.

3. ETH needs to catch up to BTC in price—this point alone is meaningless, but if momentum starts to build, it can easily be hyped. Traditional finance is usually "dumb," which means that promoting the view that "you can still get in early by buying ETH" is not entirely unreasonable because who the marginal buyers are is crucial. Pushing ETH back to its all-time high (about an 85% increase) would only bring ETHBTC back to 0.044, which is equivalent to the level in September 2024. Even if ETHBTC doesn't break out, I'm completely wrong, but as long as BTC breaks $110,000, it likely signals the return of the bull market, and ETH rarely performs poorly during these periods. ETH's weakness usually occurs when BTC starts to stagnate or decline.

I have carefully considered this issue and still firmly believe that, from a mid- to long-term structural perspective, the investment value of ETH is clear, and I have accordingly adjusted my investment portfolio."