China International Capital Corporation (CICC): Powell Expected to Maintain a Hawkish Stance at the June FOMC Meeting

BlockBeats reported on June 12 that CICC stated it leans towards the likelihood of seeing a round of price increases in the U.S. in the coming months. However, unlike the period from 2021 to 2022, this round of price hikes is expected to be more structural and one-off in nature, rather than broad-based inflation. For the Federal Reserve, moderate inflation data is positive news, but officials are unlikely to make major decisions based on single-month data. Given that the current labor market remains stable, the Fed does not need to rush into rate cuts. Officials might prefer to review several more data sets before making decisions. Next week, the Federal Reserve will hold the June FOMC meeting. CICC believes that compared to the March dot plot, which did not foresee "reciprocal tariffs," the Fed may slightly revise inflation forecasts upward in June. However, due to the resilience in non-farm payrolls and the cooling of tariffs, the Fed’s assessment of growth may be more optimistic than in March. As such, Powell’s stance at this meeting may lean hawkish, potentially disappointing investors hoping for rate cuts from the Fed. (Jin10)