Opinion: Bitcoin's current rally exhibits a potential "double top" pattern similar to 2021

BlockBeats News, May 14th, Coindesk analyst Oliver Knight stated that the price trend of Bitcoin this time is accompanied by the same on-chain indicators as in 2021, and may form a potential "double top" structure.

Oliver Knight explained that the first indicator to focus on is the weekly RSI, which has shown three bearish divergences in March 2024, December 2024, and May 2025. (RSI is a technical indicator used to measure the average gains and losses over a certain period to assess potential overbought or oversold conditions. Bearish divergence refers to the RSI trending downward while the price trend is upward.)

In addition, the trading volume at the time of this breakout was lower than the level at the initial breakout of $100,000, indicating that the momentum of this uptrend is weakening. The trading volume of cryptocurrencies and institutional trading platforms has decreased, with the trading volume of Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures failing to exceed 35,000 contracts for three out of the past four weeks. In the previous breakout above $100,000, the trading volume frequently exceeded 65,000 contracts, with three instances exceeding 85,000 contracts.

Furthermore, the open interest has also diverged from the price trend, currently down 13% from the initial rise to $109,000 in January, while the price has only dropped by 5.8%. Four years ago, when Bitcoin reached $69,000, although the price rose by 6.6%, the open interest had decreased by 15.6% from the initial peak of $65,000.

Oliver Knight added that these indicators do suggest that although the Bitcoin price may hit new highs as in 2021, the momentum of this trend is weakening.