QCP: ETH Long-Term Option Flow Rejuvenation, Price Breakout Not Driven by Speculative Excess

BlockBeats News, May 13th, QCP released its daily market observation report, stating that China and the United States have agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs, triggering a strong rally in risk assets. The U.S. stock market surged 3% at the open, with the market expecting a revival in cross-border trade. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset and hedge against protectionism, fell nearly 3% after the news was announced, but later narrowed its losses. The market has returned to a more traditional macro pattern - with a stronger U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, and weaker gold - driving selling pressure across asset classes. The VIX index fell to 18, and Bitcoin's front-end volatility compressed by over 5 volatility points. Bitcoin and Ethereum initially fell after the tariff news, and are currently stabilizing around $103,000 and $2,400, respectively. However, there are signs of rotation within the market. Bitcoin's market dominance has fallen below 63%, while other cryptocurrencies, especially Ethereum, are starting to outperform.

Bitcoin is still caught in a tug-of-war between its "digital gold" narrative and its identity as a risk asset proxy, with this contradiction continuing to blur its directional judgment. As the macro narrative shifts from protectionism to trade optimism, Bitcoin may remain within a range. Nevertheless, such a macro environment shift may affect derivative flows. A longer investment cycle typically supports back-end option demand, reduces front-end put option hedging demand, and leads to a steeper volatility curve.

In contrast, Ethereum's funding rate remains neutral, and the price breakout is not being primarily driven by speculative excess. The price break above $2,400 aligns with the launch of the Pectra upgrade, with a return of longer-term option flow being observed. This may be an early signal of Ethereum positioning itself as the next major allocation asset in the market.