Entity: There is a 50% chance of a US economic recession, with the expectation that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut in June.

BlockBeats News, April 7th, TD Securities stated that the worsening trade tensions could prompt the Fed to cut rates earlier, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond possibly falling to 3% by the end of this year. Strategists including Oscar Munoz wrote in a report, "Our forecast for the timing of the FOMC's first rate cut has been moved up from July to June, and we now expect the committee to cut rates at each subsequent meeting until May 2026."

Furthermore, analysts put the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession at 50%. As President Trump's tariff actions have impacted global markets, TD Securities has joined the ranks of institutions such as Goldman Sachs and UBS Global Wealth Management in advancing expectations for U.S. policy easing. Derivatives traders are now pricing in more than four rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, whereas on April 1st, the day before Trump announced unexpectedly strong tariff retaliation measures, the expectation was around three cuts. (FX678)