Arthur Hayes: $76,500 is Bitcoin's Local Low, Trump's Tariff Policy Has Limited Impact

BlockBeats News, April 2nd, BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes published a lengthy article providing a market outlook. In the article, he stated that he no longer cared whether Trump would raise tariffs on April 2nd, or by how much. This is because during the March FOMC meeting, Powell commented on the "impact of Trump's tariff proposal on inflation," stating that any inflation caused by tariffs is "temporary." The belief in this "transitory" inflation allows the Fed to continue easing even in the event of inflation skyrocketing due to significantly increased tariffs. At least for assets traded solely based on fiat liquidity, tariffs are no longer relevant.

Regarding Bitcoin, Arthur Hayes analyzed that Bitcoin's trading is entirely based on the market's expectation of future fiat currency supply. If the Fed's major shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to Treasury quantitative easing (QE) is established, then Bitcoin's local low of $76,500 reached last month marks the beginning of our climb towards $250,000 by year-end. If I had to bet on whether Bitcoin would first reach $76,500 or $110,000, I would choose the latter. Even if the U.S. stock market continues to decline due to tariffs, collapsing earnings expectations, or weakened foreign demand, I still believe in Bitcoin's greater potential for further growth and maintain the view that Bitcoin can reach $250,000 by the end of the year.