Bloomberg: Market Expects Fed to Keep Rates Unchanged, Trump's New Policies Bring Greater Uncertainty

BlockBeats News, March 19th. According to Bloomberg, all 108 forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg predicted that the Federal Reserve's FOMC will maintain its policy unchanged, with the upper end of the target range at 4.5%. This would be the Fed's second consecutive maintenance of its policy, following three rate cuts by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues totaling 100 basis points at the end of last year. The Fed and the entire economy face unusually uncertain economic growth and inflation prospects over the coming months and quarters.

On the inflation front, concerns about another rise in consumer prices have been triggered by tariff increases—the Fed has yet to complete its task of returning prices to its 2% target. The latest reading of the core personal consumption expenditures index (excluding food and energy) stands at 2.6%. The Fed's previous year-end inflation rate forecast was 2.5%. As for the Fed's new policy rate outlook, the question is whether officials' median forecasts are consistent with December's forecast of two rate cuts in 2025. Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at Grant Thornton, said, "The rate-cutting trajectory will be quite divergent due to the existing uncertainties."