CME Solana Futures Trade Cool on Debut Day, ETF Approval May Struggle to Replicate Bitcoin Success

BlockBeats News, March 18, according to TheBlock, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Solana Futures quietly launched on March 17, with a first-day trading volume of only $12.3 million and open interest of $7.8 million, far below the previous impressive performances of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. K33 Research analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman pointed out in their latest report that this data reflects institutional investors' lukewarm attitude towards altcoins. Even if a Solana ETF is approved in the future, its price-boosting effect on SOL may be weaker than market expectations.

Bitcoin futures launched at the peak of the bull market in December 2017, with a first-day trading volume of $102.7 million and open interest of $209 million. Ethereum futures were introduced in February 2021 at the beginning of the altcoin craze, with a first-day trading volume of $31 million and open interest of $20 million. Solana futures launched yesterday amidst risk-off sentiment in the market and a lack of major catalysts. When viewed by market cap proportion, Solana futures' relative performance is close to Bitcoin and Ethereum's previous launches, but the vast difference in absolute values reveals a lack of institutional interest. K33's latest report emphasizes that in the current environment, funds tend to favor core assets like Bitcoin rather than more volatile altcoins.

The launch of CME futures is often seen as a precursor to the approval of spot ETFs, but analysts believe that even if a Solana ETF is launched, it will be challenging to replicate the frenzy of the Bitcoin ETF in 2024. The Bitcoin ETF was born during a halving anticipation and macro looseness resonance period, which is lacking in the current market narrative drive. Apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum, the institutional derivatives market for other altcoins has shown sluggish growth, reflecting that under macroeconomic uncertainty, institutions are more inclined to allocate to "digital gold" rather than high-risk assets. Bitcoin's "commodity-like" positioning provides a clear compliance path, while altcoins still reside in a gray area. Despite the short-term setbacks, the developer activity and technological innovation within the Solana ecosystem remain at the forefront among many public chains. It is hoped that after the approval of spot ETFs, it will shine, but as of now, the path to "institutionalization" of altcoins remains full of challenges.