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Bitfinex estimates: Bitcoin supply will be one-fifth of demand after halving

According to BlockBeats, on April 23, analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex predicted that the daily supply of new Bitcoins could drop to $30 million after the recent halving of Bitcoin (BTC) block rewards. This figure is about one-fifth of the average daily inflow of spot ETFs. Analysts pointed out that as daily issuance declines after the halving, it is expected that the new market supply (newly mined BTC) may drop from the current $40-50 million to $30 million per day. In contrast, although the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs has slowed down in recent weeks and even turned to net outflows, its average daily net inflow is still more than $150 million. In addition, on-chain data shows that investors are once again increasingly keeping their Bitcoin directly, weakening the supply side of the market. Bitfinex analysts said that the current outflow of Bitcoin exchanges has reached the highest level since January 2023, indicating that many investors are expecting price increases and transferring their positions to cold wallets. Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,660, up more than 5% since the halving, contrary to the market’s expectations for a price correction.
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The current Bitcoin market structure closely resembles that of Q1 2022, with over 25% of on-chain supply in a state of unrealized losses. ETF fund flows and on-chain momentum are weakening, with price relying on a key cost basis area.
1. Bitcoin price enters a range of fluctuations after halving, and the market is divided on its rise and fall. 2. The positive view is that the market value of Bitcoin will exceed that of gold, and the price is expected to reach $1 million, or even $4 million after 2028. 3. The negative view is that the price of Bitcoin may fall back to $30,000 or lower. 4. The neutral view is that the price of Bitcoin will fluctuate in the range of $60,000-70,000 until August. 5. Long-term bullish, the bull market may not be over yet, and the price of Bitcoin will be affected by events such as the Fed's interest rate cut and the US election.
This report delves into how the significant purchasing power of ETFs has reshaped traditional expectations about the supply squeeze effect of the halving, and the critical role played by long-term holders (LTH) in the current market cycle.
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