Arthur Hayes is cautious about Bitcoin ETFs: they may pose a threat to the value and existence of Bitcoin.

On December 23, Arthur Hayes, the founder of the cryptocurrency trading platform BitMEX, published a lengthy article in his blog on BlockBeats, which deeply analyzed topics such as changes in Federal Reserve policy, regulated decentralized finance (Permissioned DeFi), real-world assets (RWA), and Bitcoin ETFs. Hayes believes that Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are the best way to fight against currency depreciation, comparing it to gold, the S&P 500 index, and the NASDAQ 100 index, and pointing out that since 2020, Bitcoin has performed far better than other risky assets. When discussing changes in Federal Reserve policy, Hayes particularly emphasized the important influence of political factors on Federal Reserve decisions. He pointed out that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had emphasized the necessity of raising interest rates to deal with out-of-control inflation during the post-pandemic period. However, according to recent statements and actions, Federal Reserve policy seems to have undergone a significant change, beginning to consider interest rate cuts in 2024. This policy change reflects the direct impact of the current political situation in the United States on Federal Reserve policy. Hayes believes that this change in policy may be due to pressure from the political leadership, especially in major election years. In order to gain voter support, political leaders may tend to adopt loose monetary policies to stimulate economic growth and improve the performance of financial markets, even if this may lead to long-term inflation risks. Hayes is critical of regulated decentralized finance (Permissioned DeFi). He believes that this financial model, which combines centralized and decentralized elements, violates the core principles of decentralization and may only be another way for traditional financial (TradFi) institutions to exploit retail investors. Regarding the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), Hayes believes that although this attempt sounds attractive, it will face many challenges in practice. He particularly pointed out that tokenizing assets such as real estate and bonds may be difficult to succeed due to lack of standardization and liquidity. Finally, Hayes is reserved about Bitcoin ETFs. He proposed that if ETFs are held and stored by traditional financial institutions in large quantities without using the Bitcoin blockchain, they may pose a threat to the value and existence of Bitcoin. He emphasized that Bitcoin is different from other currency assets in history, and its value lies in its liquidity and use, not just holding.