After the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates at this meeting has dropped to 0%.

According to BlockBeats news on November 1st, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% at this meeting is 97.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 0%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged until December is 69.1%, the probability of cumulative interest rate hikes of 25 basis points is 29.3%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate hikes of 50 basis points is 3.6%. The ADP report released on Wednesday showed that private sector employment increased by 113,000 in October, with the market expecting an increase of 150,000. Despite the Fed's 525 basis point interest rate hike since March 2022, the labor market remains strong. A survey by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed that consumers had an optimistic view of the labor market in October. The lower-than-expected growth may reflect the strike by the United Auto Workers (UAW) against the three major automakers, which may have weakened employment in the manufacturing sector. The government reported last week that at least 30,000 UAW members participated in the strike during the survey period in October.