Flash Crash Reason: Top Institution Report Points to Mass Production Delay

BlockBeats News, June 10th, Independent research firm SemiAnalysis, focusing on the semiconductor, AI infrastructure, and data center sectors, released its latest multi-vertical research note today, with the core conclusion pointing to a significant delay in two key AI data center technology paths.

First is the NVIDIA native 800VDC architecture shipment significantly postponed. The report indicates that NVIDIA's originally planned single-ended 800VDC power supply design, intended for large-scale adoption, has seen its shipment window pushed back to 2028. Although the 400VDC high-voltage direct current solution is progressing as planned, hyperscalers currently prefer to continue using mature low-voltage solutions or gradually transition to 400VDC, rather than rushing to switch to 800VDC. The report notes that the marginal benefits of 800VDC in current grid power supply and efficiency improvements are insufficient to support its complexity, leading to a temporary industry slowdown.

Second is the slowed pace of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) mass production and delivery. The expected 2027 CPO shipment volume is significantly lower than earlier market aggressive forecasts, with the scale-out production timing possibly delayed to 2028 or even 2029. Scale-out CPO switch shipment volumes face downside risks, mainly due to optical engine connection yield, ASIC integration challenges, and overall cost-effectiveness. Currently, under optimistic circumstances, the optical engine connection yield is around 95%, but the production volume driven by a single ASIC remains very limited.

SemiAnalysis stated that 400VDC products are expected to ramp up in the second quarter of 2026, with significant growth expected in 2027; some NPO (Near Package Optics) projects may accelerate. However, Sidecar shipments relying on new platforms like Rubin Ultra/Kyber will be delayed to the 2028 window, putting pressure on related power, switches, and optical module suppliers.

SemiAnalysis holds a relatively positive view on companies such as Anixter, Vertiv, Legrand, while being more cautious about Lumentum, Himax, Navitas, Wolfspeed, among others.